[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE PART OF THE FORECASTS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS IN EASTERN MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE COVERS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 20.5N
SOUTHWARD FROM 95.5W WESTWARD...WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8
FEET TO 12 FEET. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER HSFAT2/FZNT02 FOR MORE MORE INFORMATION.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 20N SOUTHWARD TO
THE MEXICO COAST BETWEEN 93W AND 94.5W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 22N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
92W AND 97W.

A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 35N08W 31N13W...TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N19W IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N19W TO 28N21W AND 32N31W. A SURFACE
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 29N15W 27N18W
25N21W.  IS ALONG THAT IS RELATED TO THE 1002 MB LOW CENTER
PASSES THROUGH 32N14W TO 23N20W 20N26W 19N33W 22N43W. UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. THIS IS RELATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT IS SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
THAT IS LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE METAREA II...ON THE WEBSITES
WWW.METEO.FR...OR WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM...FOR THE SECTION THAT IS
CALLED MADEIRA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THAT AREA.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA-BISSAU AND GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 11N21W...TO A 1012 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N28W...TO 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N37W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
10N37W TO 07N40W AND 07N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 12N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 30N70W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR
26N77W...JUST TO THE NORTH OF ANDROS ISLAND...AND INTO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N82W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N72W...TO FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W...TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...TO THE BORDER OF SOUTH TEXAS AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL MEXICO. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM THE
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER...CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS
BIG BEND...INTO THE FAR WEST OF TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS COVERING THE TROUGH THAT IS SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND MOISTURE AT
MANY LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 31N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO CUBA NEAR
23N80W TO SOUTHWESTERN HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
21.5N TO 23N WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF CUBA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 25N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W
EASTWARD. IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 27N64W TO 24N70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 30N SOUTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD. IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 17N TO 19.5N BETWEEN 87.5W AND 89.5W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N81W 17N84W 20N87W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 14N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD. THE 24-
HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/1200
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.29 IN
BERMUDA...0.22 IN MERIDA MEXICO...0.12 IN TEGUCIGALPA
HONDURAS...0.11 IN VERACRUZ MEXICO...AND 0.06 IN MONTERREY
MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 75W
WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM
75W EASTWARD.

PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRST PARAGRAPH IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SECTION...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N53W-TO-
COLOMBIA 05N69W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
18/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 2.03 IN
GUADELOUPE...AND 0.35 IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE CENTRAL AMERICA-TO-CUBA RIDGE.

CURRENT WEATHER...IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO
DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT CENTRAL
AMERICA-TO-CUBA RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWESTERLY-TO-
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA-TO-WINDWARD PASSAGE RIDGE WILL BRING NORTHWESTERLY-TO-
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ONE OR TWO INDIVIDUAL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERS MAY COVER HISPANIOLA FOR COMPARATIVELY SHORTER PERIODS
OF TIME DURING THE ENTIRE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT FOR THE FIRST 30 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD THE WINDS WILL BE FROM VARIABLE DIRECTIONS
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N53W...TO 25N57W...TO AN
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N54W....
TO 18N61W...TO 11N65W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...THROUGH VENEZUELA...INTO EASTERN COLOMBIA NEAR
05N69W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH FROM 26N NORTHWARD...AND WITHIN 360 NM TO 480 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 26N SOUTHWARD. ONE SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 29N70W 27N71W 25N71W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
58W/59W FROM 18N TO 26N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 61W. A THIRD SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 11N50W 13N53W 16N55W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 18N
BETWEEN 44W AND 52W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...
THROUGH 25N25W TO 19N27W AND 10N31W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 22N18W 17N23W 12N28W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 32W AND 56W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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