[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161940 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015

CORRECTED FOR THE HISPANIOLA SECTION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE PART OF THE FORECASTS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S.A. WILL STRENGTHEN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO DURING THIS WEEKEND. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR IN 24 HOURS...FROM 18.5N TO 21N WITHIN 75 NM
OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...NEAR VERACRUZ...WITH SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 11 FEET. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER HSFAT2/FZNT02 FOR MORE MORE
INFORMATION.

A 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N19W IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. A COLD FRONT THAT IS RELATED TO THE 1002 MB LOW
CENTER PASSES THROUGH 32N14W TO 23N20W 20N26W 19N33W 22N43W.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. THIS IS RELATED TO AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE METAREA
II...ON THE WEBSITES WWW.METEO.FR...OR WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM...FOR
THE SECTIONS THAT ARE CASABLANCA AND AGADIR. GALE-FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. NOT ALL THE PRECIPITATION
THAT IS IN THIS AREA IS RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. SOME OF IT
IS RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N
TO 17N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
15N TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BETWEEN 80W AND 88W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE FROM 09N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 11N78W TO 12N81W TO
14N82W. LAND INTERACTION IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE IT
MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SOME
LIMITED DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY IF THIS
FEATURE EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS SECTIONS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE WEEKEND.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES COASTAL SECTIONS OF GAMBIA AND SENEGAL
ALONG 13N/14N BETWEEN 16W AND 17W...TO 12N25W AND 08N33W. THE
ITCZ IS ALONG 08N33W 06N42W 04N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 03N TO 15N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES ACROSS BERMUDA...TO 29N70W...AND THEN
PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA. THE FRONT BECOMES DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO 24N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N86W
24N93W 20N97W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER TROUGH IS JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE LINE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE TO THE EAST
OF THE 30N86W 20N97W LINE...INCLUDING ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 70W
WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM
70W EASTWARD.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 60W FROM 11N TO 17N. THIS TROUGH HAS
BEEN MOVING WESTWARD STEADILY DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 17N
WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 60W.

PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION THAT IS ABOUT TROPICAL WAVES...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 85W/86W TROPICAL WAVE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA
BEYOND COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD IN THE
COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND INLAND IN THOSE
COUNTRIES.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
14/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.89 IN
VERACRUZ IN MEXICO...0.54 IN GUADELOUPE...0.10 IN MONTEGO BAY IN
JAMAICA...0.09 IN TRINIDAD AND TEGUCIGALPA...0.04 IN BERMUDA...
AND 0.01 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT RIDGE
AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS COVERING THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA WILL REMAIN STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
BRINGING MORE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA. RIDGE WILL
EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF CARIBBEAN SEA TO CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA...SENDING NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WINDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS
THAT GENERAL EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR
THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND FLOW
WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST-TO-EAST OR FROM THE EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST
FOR DAY ONE. DAY TWO WILL SEE AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
MOVE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA...AND THEN IT ULTIMATELY WILL MOVE
WESTWARD...SENDING NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR DAY
TWO. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL
CONSIST OF EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N58W. LARGE
SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN 420 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N52W 21N57W
07N66W IN VENEZUELA.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...ALONG
50W FROM 25N TO 30N. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD WITH
TIME DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 49W AND 52W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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