[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W FROM 12N
SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N25W 12N30W 07N37W 08N40W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W...MOVING WESTWARD
20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION..
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 56W AND 65W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN PUERTO RICO
ALONG 67W/68W SOUTHWARD...TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA...MOVING
WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH AN AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW. THE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGER-SCALE
AREA OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N54W 24N59W 16N60W RIDGE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF SENEGAL AND
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N17W TO 14N24W AND 11N34W. THE ITCZ STARTS
NEAR 08N36W...AND IT CONTINUES TO 07N44W AND 04N49W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N25W 12N30W 07N37W 08N40W.
SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED MORE SPECIFICALLY TO
THE 35W/36W TROPICAL WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 15W AND
19W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 41W AND 45W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND
50W...AND FROM 12N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF WATERS...BEYOND THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.
BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WITHIN 200 NM OF THE U.S.A. COAST BETWEEN 83W FOR
FLORIDA AND 97W FOR MEXICO.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 28N NORTHWARD.

ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N82W 26N85W 23N87W. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N90W...ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...16N92W IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. FEW TO
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 26N82W
26N86W 23N90W 19N93W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION THAT IS ABOUT TROPICAL WAVES...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE TWO CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVES.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...CUTTING RIGHT THROUGH HAITI...TO A 15N73W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 15N73W
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA
NEAR 10N74W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WAS FORECAST BY THE
GFS MODEL AT LEAST 24 HOURS AGO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
82W/83W FROM 09N IN PANAMA TO 17N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 66W AND 76W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
78W AND 85W...INCLUDING IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
09/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.34 IN
BERMUDA AND 0.26 IN GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION THAT IS ABOUT TROPICAL WAVES FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE TWO CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVES. AN
UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED TROUGH CUTS THROUGH HAITI.
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N73W...
FORECAST CORRECTLY BY THE GFS MODEL 24 HOURS AGO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 66W
AND 76W.

CURRENT CONDITIONS...IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO...AND THEY WERE
BEING OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT 15N73W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF AND MOVE
ONSHORE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL OPEN ITSELF INTO A
TROUGH FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH
WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE SECOND 24 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT A FEW INVERTED TROUGHS WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO
28N69W 24N70W...CUTTING RIGHT THROUGH HAITI...TO A 15N73W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 32N67W 29N70W 28N75W
27N79W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF 32N BETWEEN 53W AND 65W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
65W AND 80W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N63W 20N64W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALONG 32N54W 24N59W TO 16N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 31N55W 25N60W 20N64W.

A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N49W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN A 300 NM RADIUS OF THE HIGH
CENTER.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 16N36W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO
30N26W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N26W TO 26N34W
AND 23N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN
30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N20W 27N30W 22N45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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