[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 050852
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
500 AM AST MON OCT 05 2015

...JOAQUIN EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 65.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM N OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 65.2 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a turn
toward the northeast and east-northeast is expected over the next
48 hours.  On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will move
away from Bermuda today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).  A sustained wind speed of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to
55 mph (89 km/h) were recently reported at the Bermuda International
Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect Bermuda
this morning.

STORM SURGE:  Water levels should gradually subside today.  Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and potentially
damaging waves.

RAINFALL:  Rain will diminish across Bermuda this morning as
Joaquin moves away from the area.

SURF:  Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas during the next day or so.  Swells are affecting
much of the east coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the coast of Atlantic Canada during the next day or
two.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Even though Joaquin is passing well east of the
coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water
levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing
significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding
likely. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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