[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS CENTERED NEAR 33.1N 65.5W AT 05/0300 UTC OR
60 NM NW OF BERMUDA MOVING NNE AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75
KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 31N-
35N BETWEEN 64W-67W WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS
FROM 30N-37W BETWEEN 56W-71W. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE
LATEST FULL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N38W TO A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N42W.
THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 36W-46W AND IT
IS EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE WITH
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 40W-45W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR 06N28W TO A SURFACE
LOW NEAR 10N42W TO 10N49W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 09N56W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-10N AND E 0F 37W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-17N BETWEEN 47W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO
CENTERED NEAR 23N96W...WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N81W EXTENDS ACROSS THE E GULF WATERS. A
COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN
EXTENDING FROM 27N92W TO 27N83W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN
100 NM OF THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF FROM 23N94W TO 22N86W TO 24N79W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NW WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE
AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE E GULF. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY THEN
TRANSITION INTO A TROUGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS IS
APPROACHING THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM
15N83W TO 20N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 18N BETWEEN 75W-77W
AFFECTING E JAMAICA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE
TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS S OF 14N
BETWEEN 67W-73W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

HURRICANE JOAQUIN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 28N80W TO A 1001 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N81W.
THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR
30N81W SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N-31N AND W
OF 77W. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N74W TO
29N61W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM OF THE
BOUNDARY. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOS IS CENTERED NEAR 27N52W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 29N54W TO 26N50W TO 26N44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LOW FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 48W-54W. A TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW ARE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB
SURFACE HIGH NEAR 20N53W AND A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 26N32W.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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