[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 032336 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS CENTERED NEAR 27.0N 70.5W AT 03/2100 UTC OR
ABOUT 435 NM SW OF BERMUDA MOVING NE AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 934 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 130
KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
160 NM OF CENTER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE
FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W. SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC
AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N27W TO 06N25W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH
MOISTURE AND IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A LARGE 700 MB TROUGH
THAT SPANS FROM 25W TO 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
04N TO 18N BETWEEN 25W AND 31W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N36W TO 08N34W MOVING W AT 5 TO
10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LARGE 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 25W
AND 45W AND A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FOCUSED
AROUND A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 09N34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO
13N BETWEEN 31W AND 39W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
15N20W...THEN RESUMES NEAR A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 09N34W TO
12N41W TO 10N46W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
10N TO 14N E OF 18W...AND FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF FROM OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO S FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO A BASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW IS SUPPORTING SHALLOW CLOUD COVER MAINLY OVER THE
NE GULF. OTHERWISE...VERY DRY AIR ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF WITH MAINLY GENTLE
WINDS ELSEWHERE OVER THE BASIN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISRUPTION OF TRADE WIND FLOW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF HURRICANE
JOAQUIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM NEAR 22N79W TO 16N86W. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS. GENTLE TO
MODERATE NE WINDS ARE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. S TO SW WINDS ARE S
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. DIFFLUENT FLOW UNDERNEATH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 15N BETWEEN
63W AND 68W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO. GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SE
TRADE WINDS COVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
THE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN TANDEM WITH JOAQUIN TO THE NE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL SEE A GRADUAL RETURN OF NORMAL
TRADE WIND FLOW AS THE CIRCULATION OF JOAQUIN MOVES FARTHER AWAY
FROM THE BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...
WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF JOAQUIN IS
BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. A SURFACE
TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE ISLAND WILL LIKELY PASS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE ISLAND LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE JOAQUIN DOMINATES MUCH OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SW N
ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION
NEAR 31N79W TO 28N77W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
100 NM E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR
28N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM W OF THE
LOW CENTER. A 1014 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 21N45W. FARTHER
EAST...A COLD FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N22W
AND EXTENDS TO 25N30W TO 24N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 27N. TWO TROPICAL WAVES AND
A SURFACE LOW ARE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS THE CIRCULATION OF JOAQUIN WILL EXIT OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION
WITH DECREASING INFLUENCES ON THE SW N ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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