[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 031549
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
1200 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015

...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS SEVERE HURRICANE JOAQUIN WITH 155 MPH
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 71.6W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM NE OF SAN SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area. For Bermuda, the
tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1200 PM EDT (1600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Joaquin was located
near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 71.6 West. Joaquin is moving
toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight with an increase in forward
speed. A turn toward the north-northeast is forecast on Sunday. On
the forecast track, the eye of Joaquin will continue to move
away from the Bahamas today, and pass west of Bermuda on Sunday.
However, a small deviation to the east of the forecast track would
bring the core of the hurricane and stronger winds closer to
Bermuda.

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane just indicated that the maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Joaquin is a strong category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  A gradual weakening is
still anticipated during the next couple of days.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The minimum central pressure recently reported by a reconnaissance
plane was 933 mb (27.55 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Gusty winds will continue to affect portions of the central
and southeastern Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions are
first expected to reach Bermuda by Sunday morning, with hurricane
conditions possible by Sunday afternoon.

STORM SURGE:  Water levels should continue to slowly subside today
as Joaquin moves away from the Bahamas.

RAINFALL:  Joaquin is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 2 to 5 inches over the Bahamas, eastern Cuba,
Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands
through today. Isolated maximum storm-total amounts of 25 inches are
possible in the central Bahamas. Outer rain bands of Joaquin will
begin to affect Bermuda by early Sunday, and Joaquin is expected to
produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall over Bermuda through Monday. This
rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much
of the southeastern coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the east coast of the United States through the
weekend. Swells from Joaquin will begin affecting Bermuda today and
continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though
Joaquin is expected to pass well east of the coast of the United
States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves
will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and
dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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