[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 031442
TCDAT1

HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015

The satellite presentation has improved during the past 12 hours.
A distinct eye is clearly observed in conventional imagery, and it
is surrounded by very deep convection. A blend of subjective and
objective Dvorak estimates of 6.0 and 6.5 T-numbers, and a peak
flight-level wind of 128 kt at 700 mb reported by a reconnaissance
aircraft yields an initial intensity of 115 kt.  The central
pressure has dropped to 936 mb in the last reconnaissance fix.
Despite the small increase in the initial intensity, the NHC
forecast, which is very close to the intensity model consensus,
calls for gradual weakening due to increasing shear and cooler
waters. By the end of the forecast period, Joaquin is expected to
have lost tropical characteristics.

Reconnaissance and satellite fixes indicate that Joaquin is moving
toward the northeast or 050 degrees at an average speed of 12 kt.
The hurricane is currently embedded within the flow between a deep
eastward-moving trough over the southeastern United States and a
subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. As the trough over the
United States swings eastward, the hurricane will likely turn
more to the north-northeast with some increase in forward speed
during the next 12 to 24 hours. Then, as the trough weakens, the
hurricane could slow down while moving west of Bermuda during late
Sunday. After that time, Joaquin is expected to become fully
embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies and accelerate eastward
toward the northeast Atlantic.  The NHC forecast is very similar to
the previous one, on top of the multi-model consensus, and in the
middle of the guidance envelope.

Although the confidence in the track forecast has increased due to
the good agreement among models, a small deviation to the east of
the forecast track would bring the core of the hurricane with
stronger winds closer to Bermuda.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 25.8N  72.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 27.9N  70.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 30.7N  68.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 33.0N  66.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 35.0N  65.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 39.0N  59.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 43.5N  45.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 48.5N  26.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila
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