[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS CENTERED NEAR 22.9N 74.6W AT 02/0300
UTC OR ABOUT 19 NM ESE OF CLARENCE TOWN LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
MOVING W AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 73W-76W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN
70W AND 78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE OVER
THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 68W-81W. SEE
LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N54W WITH A REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N64W INTO
THE LOW CENTER THEN TO 26N47W. THIS CURRENT NON-TROPICAL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE
FOR THE LOW TOP OBTAIN MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO FORM WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
THE LOW MOVES NE AND THEN N. GALE FORCE WINDS PREVAIL N OF 26N
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FT. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IN
TERMS OF INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM...THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE
IT WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
FROM 21N TO 29N BETWEEN 44W AND 65W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLC WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N28W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR
11N26W...MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT FROM THE SURFACE TO NEARLY 700 MB THAT ALONG WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE WAVE REGION SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN
23W AND 30W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 43W...
MOVING W AT 5 KT. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT FROM THE
SURFACE TO 700 MB. HOWEVER...SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION IS ALSO
DEPICTED IN THE N-NW WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHERE METEOSAT ENHANCED
IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR. STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN
THE WAVE REGION INFLUENCES LACK OF CONVECTION AT THE TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N26W TO 12N33W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS IS FROM 06N TO 14N E OF 18W. THE
OTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERNMOST
TRPCL WAVE. SEE TRPCL WAVES SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHARP MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ILLINOIS TO
ALABAMA S-SW TO A BASE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS
UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT
FROM 27N80W TO 26N82W TO 23N90W TO THE SW GULF NEAR 20N94W.
EXCEPT FOR THE SE GULF AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THE CIRA LAYER
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS THE
BASIN THAT ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR
HINDER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE COLD FRONT W OF 84W. LOOKING
AHEAD...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO START DISSIPATING OVER THE
SE GULF FRIDAY NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE FROM HURRICANE JOAQUIN IN THE SW N ATLC WILL
DOMINATE THE EASTERN BASIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HEAVY
RAIN AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS NE CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA AND MARINE WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF BOTH ISLANDS. TSTMS ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED OVER
SOUTHERN HAITI...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND CARIBBEAN WATERS
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. JOAQUIN ALSO HAS DISRUPTED THE
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN...SHOWING TO BE VARIABLE AND
LESS THAN 15 KT S OF 16N W OF 70W. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15
KT IS NOTED ALONG CUBA SOUTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS WHILE WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW OF 20-25 KT IS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND EASTERN
CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF
16N...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES BEING INFLUENCED EITHER BY DRY AIR
OR STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. LOOKING AHEAD...AREAS OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMPACTING CUBA
AND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS JOAQUIN
TRACKS NORTHWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY...THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN
EXTEND ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND. A MARINE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST OF HISPANIOLA AS
HURRICANE JOAQUIN REMAINS JUST N OF THE ISLAND. THE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE
MOVES NORTHWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC IS MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE SECOND AREA OF INTEREST IS A
1004 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N54W WITH A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N64W INTO THE LOW
CENTER THEN TO 26N47W. THIS CURRENT NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE IT WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF THE LOW CENTER BETWEEN
50W AND 60W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FT. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. NW OF
JOAQUIN...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORT A FRONTAL
SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N79W TO A 1003 MB
LOW NEAR 27N80W WHERE THE FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT
ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS IS N OF 29N W OF 79W. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 29N27W TO 27N37W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. A
SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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