[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N30W TO 10N29W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS AND
COINCIDES WITH A GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB JET MAXIMUM TO
THE EAST OF THE AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF 07N28W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 29W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N68W TO 18N68W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A 700 MB RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 20N57W WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SHEARING TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IN PLACE TO
THE WEST AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAXIMIZED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-22N BETWEEN 62W-70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
09N16W TO 08N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 08N19W TO 04N31W TO 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-10N BETWEEN 18W-25W...AND FROM 03N-06N
BETWEEN 47W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 27N85W. WHILE A WEAK MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING...MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE GULF BASIN RESULTING IN MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO
HOLD WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO CLIP THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AND LIFT
NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGHING...HOWEVER MINIMAL MID-LEVEL
LIFTING DYNAMICS AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE GENERATING A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF
CUBA...INCLUDING THE WESTERN YUCATAN CHANNEL AREA. OTHERWISE...
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. FARTHER EAST...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGHING. THIS
DIFFLUENT ZONE ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
69W IS PROVIDING FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE...ALONG
WITH A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W
TO THE NICARAGUA COAST NEAR 11N84W. LOOKING AHEAD...EAST-
SOUTHEAST TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRESH BREEZE
CONDITIONS TO A RANGE OF FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC CREATES A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W AND THE
PRESENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGHING IS PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
ZONE OVER THE ISLAND AND SURROUNDING REGION WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH
ATLC NEAR 30N65W THAT SUPPORTS A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
26N68W WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW TO 29N66W
AND SW FROM THE LOW TO 24N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW CENTER...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 63W-65W. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS NEAR
35N80W. TO THE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...MID-LEVEL ENERGY
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IS MORE APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 51W-63W. FINALLY...THE EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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