[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC W OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
FROM 02N TO 09N WITH AN AXIS ALONG 24W TO 25W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOWS A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF 7N JUST WEST OF
THE WAVE. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 08N
BETWEEN 24N AND 28W.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS PASSED OVER PORTION OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
THIS MORNING AND NOW EXTENDS FROM 08N TO 18N ALONG 62W...MOVING
WEST AT 15 TO 20 KT. SSMI TPW SHOWS THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGE AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE WHICH IS ALSO WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THE WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W TO 04N24W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 04N28W AND CONTINUES ALONG 04N40W TO THE NORTHERN
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 14W AND 20W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 36W AND
52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS SUPPORTING
A SQUALL LINE THAT MOVED OFFSHORE THE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING.
AS OF 1600 UTC THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SQUALL LINE IS FROM
29N93W TO 25N97W. THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N TO 27N WEST OF
96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE
ALONG THE SQUALL LINE. A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF FROM 23N95W TO 18N94W. NO CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF EXTENDING FROM 29N87W TO 25N85W. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. OTHER THAN GUSTY NW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL
LINE...GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15 KT COVERS
THE GULF BASIN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF THROUGH
SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH IS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 50 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N78W TO 18N66W...INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO. CONVECTION EAST OF THIS AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 79W AND 84W. EXPECT THE
FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE ISLAND IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE
BEING TRANSPORTED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY.
CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY THIS MOISTURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE ISLAND. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY
MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE ISLAND...AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. ON SATURDAY...DEEP
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL SUPPORT ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N59W CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 22N TO 31N
BETWEEN 53W TO 62W. A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
26N68W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N63W THROUGH THE
CENTER OF THE LOW TO 24N71W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 25N TO 28W BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR THE AZORES SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC.
THE SURFACE LOW AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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