[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282320
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS AT ABOUT 150 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
EXTENDING FROM 14N58W TO 07N59W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT DURING
THE LAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG AND IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE EXTENDING FROM 06N-16N BETWEEN 52W-
59W. LATEST SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT MOISTURE ZONE AT MID AND LOW LEVELS.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THIS WAVE TO APPROACH THE
CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N14W TO 05N20W. FROM THIS POINT...THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES THROUGH 04N34W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
03N-07N BETWEEN 14W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
TO THE E...A PAIR OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE OBSERVED OVER
THE E GULF. THE FIRST ONE EXTENDS S FROM THE COAST OF
MISSISSIPPI WITH AXIS ALONG 89W AND THE SECOND ONE EXTENDS S
FROM THE N FLORIDA COAST WITH AXIS ALONG 83W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SECOND TROUGH
MAINLY N OF 26N BETWEEN 87W-89W. BENIGN WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
SW GULF FROM 23N95W TO 19N95W. A SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS
THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE GULF. WITH THIS...AN
ANTICYCLONIC LIGHT TO GENTLE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER TEXAS
MAY BRING CONVECTION ACROSS NW GULF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF ALSO
REACHES THE W CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED N OF 18N BETWEEN 75W-84W AFFECTING CUBA...JAMAICA AND
THEIR ADJACENT WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN MAINLY S OF 13N
AFFECTING PANAMA AND COSTA RICA ALSO. LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ARE
DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN
WILL DISSIPATE. THE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL
PERSIST. EXPECT FOR A TROPICAL WAVE TO APPROACH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WITH CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORT SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A
1015 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS ALONG THIS LOW FROM 30N67W TO 23N69W. ANOTHER WEAK 1016
MB SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR 27N60W. ISOLATED LIGHT TO
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N31W BETWEEN 53W-63W. A BROAD 1031
MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED N OF OUR AREA EXTENDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE LOWS TO DISSIPATE AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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