[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N WITH
AXIS NEAR 45W...MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC IS LIMITING
THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE APPROXIMATE WAVE AXIS POSITION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 03N TO 10N E OF
17W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE
SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SW ACROSS
CENTRAL U.S. TO TEXAS AND MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A CENTER OF 1031 MB OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE HEAT TROUGH IS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 22N90W TO 15N93W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH SOUTHERN PORTION OF ITS AXIS
EXTENDING OVER SE GULF WATERS FROM 26N82W TO 25N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH EXTENDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM
25N TO 30N. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM
29N86W TO 25N86W ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. HAZE AND FOG IS ALSO BEING
REPORTED IN THE NW GULF N OF 27 W OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW
BASIN...RESULTING IN NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 79 WITH SEAS RANGING UP TO 9 FT.
ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF OF 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT DOMINATE.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW
BASIN...WHICH ALONG WITH TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND ADJACENT
WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. FAIR
WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW ISLAND
ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND
ADJACENT WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND
AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH
WED MORNING BEING ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 27N60W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO
22N61W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
22N TO 31N BETWEEN 51W AND 58W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE
ITCZ. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 34W AND
53W. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE SW N ATLC DURING THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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