[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261735
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM 01N TO 12N WITH AXIS NEAR
45W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 13N
BETWEEN 35W AND 56W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 06N20W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH 06N30W TO 03N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS FROM
13W TO 29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUPPORTING A
SQUALL LINE WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF THAT AS OF 1600 UTC EXTENDED FROM 30N87W TO 28N88W TO
27N92W. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST
OF THE LINE TO THE FLORIDA COAST NORTH OF 26N. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF FROM 23N94W TO 18N96W. NO
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. ASIDE FROM WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE...EAST TO SE WINDS OF AROUND 15
KT COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THE SQUALL LINE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE IS
CENTERED EAST OF FLORIDA. AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE EXISTS BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES FROM CENTRAL CUBA AND OVER A PORTION OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 75W AND 85W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 12N
BETWEEN 79W AND 84W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN A SURFACE LOW OVER COLOMBIA AND A DEPARTING
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO
25 KT COVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE ISLAND
SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
ISLAND TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC
SUPPORTED BY A SURFACE LOW AND DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC. THIS FEATURE IS NOT DEPICTED ON THE 1200 UTC MAP AND WILL
LIKELY BE ADDED FOR THE 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE FRONT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N59W WITH A
SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS LOW NOW EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
NEAR 28N58W. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE INCLUDED ON THE
1800 UTC ANALYSIS AS WELL. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
COMPLEX AREA OF WEATHER EXTENDS FROM 31N55W TO 21N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONNECTION IS FROM 21N TO 31N BETWEEN 51W AND 60W. A
1038 MB LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 46N27W DOMINATES
THE EASTERN NORTHERN ATLC. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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