[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W FROM 11N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 5N TO
7N BETWEEN 30W AND 33W IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 7N20W TO 4N31W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN
GENERAL FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 22W AND 33W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 1N TO 6N BETWEEN 35W AND 52W.

A SURFACE TROUGH WAS APPARENT IN THE SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS...ALONG 7N37W 1N39W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN
35W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
TEXAS GULF COAST TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND...SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
MEXICO...TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS
AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 95W
AND 99W AT 24/0915 UTC...SPREADING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 97W AND THE COAST AT 24/1315 UTC.
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 95W AND 97W OFF THE
COAST OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE WATERS THAT ARE OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF EASTERN
HONDURAS BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN-FLOW SURFACE WINDS ARE COMMON ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 19N55W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 18N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 15N77W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR...THAT IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVER THE AREA FROM 14N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 81W.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO
15N78W...MERGING EVENTUALLY WITH THE NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW
THAT IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE 19N55W-TO-15N77W MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF EASTERN
HONDURAS BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 19N55W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 18N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 15N77W.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH AND NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED
IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT
32N58W-TO-14N63W TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
PUERTO RICO TO HISPANIOLA AND EVEN TO 17N75W FOR THE FIRST 24
HOURS. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE BAHAMAS TO HISPANIOLA DURING
THE SECOND SET OF 24 HOURS...BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SPAN HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST
6 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE REST
OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N40W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N48W AND 19N55W...TO 18N65W
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 15N77W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO
28N63W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT 32N59W TO
30N71W...TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 28N80W. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 16N NORTHWARD
FROM 57W WESTWARD IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FROM 14N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 60W AND 81W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 50W WESTWARD.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N
NORTHWARD FROM 50W EASTWARD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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