[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181702
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 18N16W TO 08N24W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE
AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 05N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 01N TO 10N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND
19W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN
175 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE EPAC WITH ANOTHER
SMALLER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. WEAK
TROUGHING EXTENDS ALONG 87W OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE UPPER
TROUGH SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO
THE NORTH GULF COAST BETWEEN 84W AND 91W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLC HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD JUST
NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS IS PROVIDING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN
TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN BASIN FROM
23N94W TO 18N95W HAS NO CONVECTION NOTED WITH IT. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
GULF BASIN...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS DRAWING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS FLOW LOFT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM PANAMA NORTH TO 12N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE FROM 17N TO
21N BETWEEN 74W AND 85W. TRADE WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KT COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NORTH OF THE COLOMBIAN
COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ISLAND MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. THESE STORMS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N75W
COVERS THE ATLC WEST OF 60W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE
AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N44W TO 23N55W AND UNDERCUTS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE TO 20N66W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION
NEAR 49N33W PROVIDES GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN
SUBTROPICAL ATLC SOUTH OF 32N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ATLC NEAR 60W
WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO
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