[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
05N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N23W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW-
AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE INDICATED ON 700 MB GLOBAL MODEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS...IS FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN 15W-23W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 10W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS SUPPORTING A 997 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED IN
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WEST TEXAS TO THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER VALLEY NEAR 30N105W. ONGOING CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS WITH A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY
REMAINING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE GULF IS LIKELY FUELING THE
CONVECTION WITH MOIST MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NE
GULF TO THE EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO COAST AND IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
AS THE MAIN FEATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N72W TO A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N82W SOUTH OF CUBA. MIDDLE TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES STREAMING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN
TO NE OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLAND WITH
EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 09N-15N
BETWEEN 80W-85W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF COASTAL
NICARAGUA. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG TRADES PERSIST
AND ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
ANTICIPATED WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

...HISPANIOLA...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING...INSTABILITY...AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING...
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AS A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 33N71W. MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGING...HOWEVER A FEW WESTWARD MOVING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE S OF 27N
W OF 69W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR 38N51W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N46W EXTENDING SW TO 23N58W
AND BECOMING STATIONARY TO 21N64W TO 21N68W TO 23N70W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM 30N40W TO
18N50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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