[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160520
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
06N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N18W TO 03N25W TO 06N39W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 13W-23W AND N OF THE ITCZ FROM 05N-07W
BETWEEN 36W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF MAINLY N OF 27N BETWEEN 87W-
96W. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW REACHING THE BASIN. WITH THIS...A LIGHT TO
GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO
MOVE E SUPPORTING CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF. THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER-LEVEL SW FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN BRINGING MOISTURE
AND CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA FROM THE EPAC. THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF IS
ALSO REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 13N
BETWEEN 77W-82W AFFECTING ALSO PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. LIGHT TO
GENTLE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 14N BETWEEN
69W-80W WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWS AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN HENCE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
PULSING TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE WATERS N OF COLOMBIA EVERY
NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. EXPECT DAYTIME
HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY EVERY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N69W. WITH THIS...FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS W OF 60W. TO THE E...A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS
LOCATED NEAR 34N57W. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
32N54W TO 25N67W. THE FRONT BECOMES WEAK FROM THIS LAST POINT TO
25N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 26N BETWEEN 49W-
55W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 42N20W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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