[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO
04N20W TO 03N23W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 05N36W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG A BREAK IN THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS FROM
07N38W TO 03N38W. THE ITCZ RESUMES NEAR 04N39W AND EXTENDS TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01S48W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 11N BETWEEN 10W AND 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 90W OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS SUPPORTS WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
25N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF ARE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING DAYTIME
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE FLORIDA. 10 TO 15 KT E TO
SE WINDS COVER THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER TEXAS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD...SUPPORTING CONVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL DAYTIME
CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA TODAY MAY MOVE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS OFF THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA
ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING STORMS THAT DEVELOPED
OVER LANDMASSES DURING THE DAYTIME. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
1005 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA HAS SPREAD OVER THE EXTREME SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 10N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LINGERING CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAS WEAKENED ACROSS
HAITI THIS EVENING. EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THIS DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM PATTERN TO REPEAT AGAIN
SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS
OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N60W TO 27N70W TO NORTH FL NEAR
29N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN
58W AND 61W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N59W TO 21N62W.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 55W TO 58W.
A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 40N21W DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICAL
EASTERN ATLC S OF 32N WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WITH CONVECTION. THE
WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONT THAT REACHES FL WILL
DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE FROM THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FL TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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