[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140939
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
AMERICA IS GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. THE
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL 1200 UTC THIS
MORNING. SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA.
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO
5N20W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS THROUGH 06N30W TO
03N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 10W AND 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OFF THE NE US COAST WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
LOCATED ACROSS TX. THESE TROUGHS SUPPORT A FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AND
OVER THE GULF FROM NEAR 30N86W TO 30N89W. CURRENTLY...NO
CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER TX SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE
BASIN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF AND TROUGHING OVER WESTERN CUBA SUPPORTS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN
81W AND 86W. E SURFACE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT COVER THE NE GULF. E
TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
BASIN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF TODAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND A 1006
MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE WESTERN ATLC TO WESTERN CUBA TO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
18N83W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 73W
AND 83W. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR CONDITIONS ARE OVER THE ISLAND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP OVER THE ISLAND DURING THE
DAYTIME TODAY...DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR
31N77W AND OVER N FL NEAR 30N82W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N60W TO WESTERN CUBA SUPPORTS ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 64W AND 69W. HIGH
PRESSURE OF 1026 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 30N45W. GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER IS E OF 60W OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC S OF 32N.
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT
AND ALONG A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION TO THE
EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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