[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
AMERICA IS GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 71W AND 76W.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST THEREAFTER FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WILL HAVE HIGHER WINDS DUE TO
THE LOW OVER COLOMBIA DEEPENING DURING THE NIGHT. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
06N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES THROUGH 05N32W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS
EAST OF 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS JUST INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 27N TO THE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COASTS BETWEEN 92W AND 97W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...MOVING WESTWARD. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W. AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SUPPORTS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W. VARIABLE
AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS COVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. GENTLE TO
MODERATE EASTERLIES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONT NEAR THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST
WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE FARTHER INLAND. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE NEAR THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINES THROUGH TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ENHANCED BY THE NEARBY UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF
WATERS FROM FLORIDA AND CUBA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LOW BETWEEN THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO
23N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE ISLAND TONIGHT. AN UPPER
LOW TO THE WEST OF THE ISLAND WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS ARE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC...ONE CENTERED
BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE OTHER NEAR
27N68W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N TO 29N
BETWEEN 63W AND 80W. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED NEAR 30N53W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST WITH
CONVECTION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND NEARBY ATLC WATERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net