[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
AMERICA IS GENERATING NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PULSE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
06N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N18W TO 05N23W TO 04N37W TO 03N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 08N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN
AND 16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER EASTERN TEXAS WITH A PORTION OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY
STRETCHING OVER THE FAR NW GULF WATERS. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER NEAR
31N94W TO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER NEAR 28N100W. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N92W
SW TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N97W. GIVEN AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND MOIST CONVERGENT
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WEST OF A
LINE FROM 30N91W TO 20N97W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF SE
TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA. OTHERWISE...AN RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCES THE EASTERN GULF WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N90W N-
NE TO OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS RESULT AT THE SURFACE IN ADDITION TO A
1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N86W. GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS
PREVAIL ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY E OF 90W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ASIDE FROM NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS OCCURRING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PREVAILING TO THE EAST OF 75W OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO. OTHERWISE...THE STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE THE MAIN
IMPACT GENERATED BY A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
STRONG 1030 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N56W AND LOWER
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA ANCHORED BY A 1007 MB
LOW CENTERED NEAR 09N76W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO
RELAX SOMEWHAT BY FRIDAY AS FRONTAL TROUGHING MOVES ACROSS THE
SW NORTH ATLC REGION TO THE N-NE OF THE BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN PROVIDING FOR
DIFFLUENT CONDITIONS ALOFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS GIVEN PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 29N69W
THAT ANCHORS BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE LOW CENTER SW TO A BASE OVER EASTERN CUBA. THE
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION...ONE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 22N-25N
BETWEEN 78W-80W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 62W-
73W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N56W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net