[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120530
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N
TO 13.5N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 9 TO 15 FT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PULSE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N14W TO 04N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 04N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03N51W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT ACROSS TEXAS SUPPORTS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE
NW GULF COAST THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N94W TO 26N96W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM SE OF THE TROUGH
AND FROM THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE TEXAS COAST. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OF 1021 MB IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS
SUPPORTS LIGHT WINDS OVER NE GULF. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE BAHAMAS SUPPORTS
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FROM 24N TO 29N FROM THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO 84W. THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WHILE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...GENTLE TO MODERATE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS PREVAIL. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS HAS
A TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NICARAGUA. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 72W AND 84W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF 12N ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERACTION OF A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN IS
SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT A
SIMILAR PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SUPPORTS
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 76W AND
79W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED
NORTH NEAR 32N56W SUPPORTS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER EAST OF 68W OVER THE SUBTROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC. FARTHER
EAST...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N20W TO 21N29W TO 19N40W. NO
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS FRONT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE OVER THE BAHAMAS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST LATER TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO
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