[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102334
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...GALE WARNING FOR SW CARIBBEAN...

THE GALE FORCE WINDS DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
RESUMED IN THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN FROM
11N-13.5N BETWEEN 72W-76W. THIS PATTERN WAS DEPICTED IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND OBSERVATIONS. DUE TO THIS...A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING N OF THE AREA...WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH WED NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
10-15 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 20N16W TO 08N19W TO 07N23W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
07N23W TO 06N35W TO 02N50W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 32W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 MB STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF
NEAR 29N84W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE GULF REGION.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THIS SYSTEM. AN ANTICYCLONIC LIGHT TO GENTLE FLOW PREVAILS
ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR THIS
WEATHER PATTERN TO PERSIST. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SHIFT W-NW ACROSS THE
SW GULF DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...ENHANCED
THE WINDS AND SEAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL-
TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 78W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
ACROSS CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THEIR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE
UPPER-LEVEL NE FLOW E OF THE TROUGH IS BRINGING MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 74W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 14N BETWEEN
67W-81W WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF
THIS AREA MAINLY N OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION. OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

...HISPANIOLA...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS BRINGING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE ISLAND. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 35N54W IS KEEPING THE W AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC UNDER A FAIR WEATHER REGIME. TO THE E...A
SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 35N33W EXTENDING ITS COLD FRONT FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO 27N36W TO 25N44W. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES WEAK
EXTENDING TO 27N58W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE
BOUNDARIES. A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC NE OF THE FRONT. THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT
FROM UW-CIMSS SHOWS AFRICAN DUST REACHING THE CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTING DRY/HAZY CONDITIONS. OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION. THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE W
AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL PREVAIL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net