[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 101446
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012015
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015

NOAA Doppler radar, surface data and visible satellite imagery
indicate that Ana continues to move over land near the South
Carolina-North Carolina border.  Surface observations suggest that
the cyclone is barely of tropical storm intensity.  Since the
center is expected to be over land at least through tonight,
weakening to a tropical depression is likely later today.  Ana is
forecast to move back over the Atlantic in about 36 hours, but
regeneration after that time is unlikely due to cool waters and
strong shear.  The global models show the system degenerating into
an open trough and becoming absorbed by a large mid-latitude low
over Atlantic Canada in about 60 hours.

Ana appears to have turned toward the north but the forward speed
continues to be quite slow, around 4 kt.  The flow ahead of a broad
500 mb trough should cause Ana or its remnant to turn toward the
northeast with some acceleration over the next couple of days.  The
official track forecast is basically an update of the previous one,
and is quite close to the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCN.

Elevated water levels, high surf, and rip currents will continue
to pose a threat over portions of the North and South Carolina
coasts today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 34.1N  78.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 34.9N  78.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  11/1200Z 36.2N  77.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  12/0000Z 38.2N  75.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  12/1200Z 41.0N  71.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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