[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM ANA...
TROPICAL STORM ANA IS CENTERED NEAR 33.6N 78.5W AT 10/0600 UTC
OR ABOUT 17 NM SE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MOVING N-NW AT
4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM
WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE WITH BANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 31N-35W W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER THE
CAROLINAS. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIATCMPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE WARNING FOR SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA FROM 11.5N-14N BETWEEN 71W-77W AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THESE GALE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE
EACH NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 18N16W ALONG 12N20W TO 6N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 5N26W 3N42W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR THE EQUATOR
AND 49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM OF LINE FROM 7N16W TO INLAND OVER SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W
AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER THE SE CONUS NEAR
PENSACOLA FLORIDA WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE FAR E
GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE AXIS IN THE W ATLC. A WEAK DIURNAL
SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN EXTENDING
ALONG 92W FROM 18N-22N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60
NM W OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N85W. THE UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE ACROSS THE W GULF WHICH IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 25N W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER E
TEXAS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER FAIR
SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD OFF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE EACH EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC
EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO THE
PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA W OF 81W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN
77W-81W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES
AGAIN TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE
TO STRONG IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND TO GALE FORCE OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EVERY NIGHT THROUGH
MID WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS
EVENING HAVE NOW DISSIPATED WITH SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ISLAND MAINLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE W OF T.S. ANA THROUGH 32N74W TO
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC
ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 11N51W. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT E OF THE
UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS 21N-25N BETWEEN 63W-78W. AN UPPER TROUGH N OF 30N
IN THE CENTRAL/E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N34W ALONG 28N46W TO BEYOND 32N60W. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC S OF THE FRONT WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N20W TO A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR
27N31W TO 21N50W THEN NARROWS TO 29N72W. T.S. ANA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SLOWLY N-NW AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF NORTH AND
SOUTH CAROLINA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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