[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 100248
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012015
1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015

Satellite and radar data indicate that Ana's convective structure
increased in organization during the late afternoon as banding
increased over the northeastern portion of the circulation.
However, during the past few hours, the cloud top temperatures have
warmed and the convection has decreased in intensity.  Data from an
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the initial
intensity remains at 50 kt, which is in best agreement with
uncontaminated SFMR winds.  Ana is still forecast to weaken slightly
while it moves over cooler waters near the coast overnight.
Additional weakening should occur once the center moves onshore
Sunday morning. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical on
Monday before it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low over
eastern North America.

Radar data and aircraft fixes indicate that Ana is moving north-
northwestward, or 320/04.  The tropical cyclone should continue
moving slowly north-northwestward tonight as a mid-tropospheric
ridge to the north of Ana shifts eastward.  A broad trough moving
into the central and eastern U.S. during the next few days is
expected to cause the cyclone or its remnants to turn northward on
Sunday and then northeastward at a faster forward speed by Sunday
night.  The updated NHC track is similar to the previous advisory
and is close to the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 33.2N  78.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 33.8N  78.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 24H  11/0000Z 34.7N  78.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  11/1200Z 35.9N  77.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  12/0000Z 37.8N  75.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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