[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 091438
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012015
1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015

Deep convection has increased somewhat near the center of the
storm, and SFMR observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
continue to support an intensity of 50 kt.  Ana will be moving
over the cooler waters to the northwest of the Gulf Stream later
today, and water vapor imagery shows a belt of upper-level
northerly flow advancing toward the tropical cyclone.  The
decreasing sea surface temperatures and increasing northerly shear
should cause Ana to weaken as it nears the coast.  The official
intensity forecast is similar to that from the previous package,
and very close to the latest intensity model consensus, IVCN.

The initial motion estimate is 320/3.  The track forecast reasoning
remains basically unchanged from the past few advisories.  Global
models continue to predict that the blocking mid-level ridge to the
north of Ana will shift eastward and weaken over the next couple of
days.  These models also show a broad trough moving from the central
to the eastern U.S. over the next 72 hours or so.  This should
result in the cyclone turning northward and north-northeastward with
a gradual increase in forward speed.  The official track forecast is
similar to the previous one and in good agreement with the latest
dynamical model consensus, TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 32.7N  77.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 33.2N  78.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 33.9N  78.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  11/0000Z 34.9N  78.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  11/1200Z 36.1N  77.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  12/1200Z 40.0N  72.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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