[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA IS CENTERED NEAR 32.2N 77.5W AT 09/0600
UTC OR ABOUT 115 NM SE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MOVING N
AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 32N-34N BETWEEN 74W-78W. A BAND OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS IS MOVING INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIATCMPAT1/ WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W TO 7N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
4N26W 2N37W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N
BETWEEN 29W-33W AND FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 33W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH THAT ENCOMPASSES SUBTROPICAL ANA
EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE AXIS IN THE W ATLC. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR
27N85W. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
AT 09/0300 UTC EXTENDING FROM 22N91W TO 18N92W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR W GULF WHICH IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN TAMPICO MEXICO AND GALVESTON TEXAS. THIS IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER REMARKABLE CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD OFF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE EACH
EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS
INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL PANAMA. THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG 80W COMBINING WITH THE EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 78W-82W. THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA W OF 80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER
FAIR SKIES THIS EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PREVAILING
OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TO GULF OF
HONDURAS THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
AGAIN SAT NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT ENCOMPASSES SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA EXTENDS
ALONG 77W INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 73W-
78W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 34N20W ALONG
28N31W TO A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 27N46W TO 30N60W. ANA IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SLOWLY N-NW WITH A NORTHERLY TURN AS IT APPROACHES
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. OTHERWISE THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE E IN THE WAKE OF ANA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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