[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A NEAR STATIONARY 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N77W AT 07/1800
UTC BASED ON THE INFORMATION FROM A AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE SW
QUADRANT AND WITHIN 60 NM OVER THE SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 11
FT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 30N TO 32N W OF 77W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA N OF 30N W OF 75W. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME INCREASE IN
THE THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ANY
INCREASE WOULD RESULT IN FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SE COAST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS AN HIGH CHANCE OF SUBTROPICAL
FORMATION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W ALONG 8N15W TO 5N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 3N30W 2N38W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N49W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
EXTENDS OVER THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FAR W ATLC THEN
INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS MEXICO TO TEXAS GIVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF NW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM A 1020 MB HIGH OVER NW GEORGIA INTO THE GULF TO A 1019 MB
HIGH NEAR 29N84W COVERING THE GULF N OF 23N E OF 90W. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE BROKEN TO OVER LOW CLOUDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TEXAS
COAST N OF CORPUS CHRISTI...THERE ARE NO SHOWERS INDICATED ON
RADAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE AREA THROUGH MON NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD OFF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE
EVENINGS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS
INTO THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W TO ACROSS CENTRAL PANAMA. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 20N86W TO THE COAST OF
HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH COMBINING
WITH THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA E OF 83W AND CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA N OF 18N BETWEEN 77W-85W. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTWARD.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI THEN EXPAND WESTWARD FRI NIGHT THROUGH
WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N70W OVER HISPANIOLA TO 19N71W
AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND OVER THE W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND CENTRAL HAITI WHILE
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND THIS EVENING.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OR MEXICO AND W CARIBBEAN
COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 73W. THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES IS
NOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH AND IS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER
RIDGE TO THE E THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N66W TO BEYOND 32N70W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING
A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 66W-71W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST...CENTRAL AND INTO THE E ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 29N48W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS IN
THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N17W TO
24N29W. THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES WILL DRIFT N-NW THROUGH
SAT. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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