[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021040
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
4N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
4N22W TO 0N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S45W.
CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-8N
BETWEEN 2W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N
BETWEEN 42W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AT
26N80W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 25N90W...VOID OF
CONVECTION. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF FRONT. A SMALL
1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N93W WITH FAIR
WEATHER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 22N. THE LATEST GOES-
R IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY SHOWS IFR CONDITIONS INLAND OVER
MEXICO S OF TAMPICO...BUT NOT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO BE ENTIRELY IN THE ATLANTIC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT
21N77W TO E HONDURAS AT 15N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN INLAND OVER
EL SALVADOR AND NICARAGUA FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 85W-89W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO LINGER OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W
OF 80W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE OVER THE ISLAND. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MOSTLY OVER HAITI DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WHILE THE FRONT LINGERS OVER E CUBA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N70W
TO SOUTH FLORIDA AT 26N80W...VOID OF CONVECTION. FURTHER E...A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N57W TO 25N70W TO THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO E CUBA AT 21N77W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF FRONT. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N46W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 20N60W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MERGE WITH THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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