[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300024 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECT ISSUE TIME
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
11.5N-14N BETWEEN 73W-77W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 18W/19W FROM
7N-13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE UPPER
LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS INDICATED THE MED TO UPPER SUPPORT IS
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE AXIS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SURFACE WAVE AXIS IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 55W/56W FROM
7N-13N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. THIS SURGE IS BEING
AMPLIFIED NORTHWARD BY THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 18N59W
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR DOMINICA TO INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W MOVING W-NW NEAR 35 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE HAS
MOVED INTO AN AREA OF DRY AIR. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 82W S OF 17N TO
OVER PANAMA MOVING W-SW NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 21N17W ALONG 12N21W TO 7N33W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 5N44W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
TEXAS CLIPPING THE NW GULF AND SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA ACROSS SE GEORGIA
TO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND ALONG THE N GULF COAST N OF 29N W
OF THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER TO INLAND OVER SE LOUISIANA.
THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60/75 NM OF THE COAST BETWEEN 89W-93W. SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA TO CENTRAL TEXAS COAST
WITH A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 26N87W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N
TO A POSITION FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NE TEXAS TUE WHERE IT WILL
CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL W-NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE SW CARIBBEAN
S OF 15N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AFTERNOON/
EVENING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
INLAND OVER MOST OF CUBA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. A
PERSISTENT W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO NEAR
GALE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH END OF
THE WEEK WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING.
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
AND OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. E CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AND THE W
CARIBBEAN BY THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WED THEN INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY
THU AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY FRI.

...HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND BETWEEN 70W-73W LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND WITH CLEAR SKIES. A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND TUE WITH MOISTURE INCREASING THUS
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WED AND THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1014 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA
ALONG THE COAST TO INLAND OVER SAVANNAH GEORGIA TO OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE FROM MIAMI FLORIDA ALONG 28N78W TO
BEYOND 32N75W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 27N78W
EXTENDING AN AXIS THROUGH 32N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA. THIS IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ABOVE AND TO THE E GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N75W TO TO 30N71W
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN
67W-71W. A BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
W ATLC AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND IS CENTERED NEAR 24N67W. A
NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N36W ALONG 29N50W THEN NW TO
31N54W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN E/W SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 27N47W AND A 1027 MB HIGH
NEAR 32N57W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE DENSE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS
OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS FROM 6N-28N E OF 50W. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED THEN SHIFT N THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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