[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

MINIMUM GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT NOW...IN THE COASTAL WATERS
OF COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W...AND THOSE
MINIMUM GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
SEA HEIGHTS IN GENERAL ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 12 FEET TO 18
FEET DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. AN INVERTED-V
SHAPE IS IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 180
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N40W 13N48W 6N55W...AND FROM 10N TO 20N
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS...PASSING BETWEEN
HAITI AND JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS
WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 7N78W...COVERING PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN
COLOMBIA AND EASTERN PANAMA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W...FROM
17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. IT PASSES
THROUGH EASTERN HONDURAS AND EASTERN NICARAGUA...COSTA
RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
COAST FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...AND IN THE
WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 19N16W TO 16N19W 10N20W AND 7N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
7N27W TO 8N41W...INTO FRENCH GUIANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N
BETWEEN 12W AND 16W...WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 9N21W...FROM 5N
TO 8N BETWEEN 32W AND 38W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 41W AND
45W.

...DISCUSSION...

FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...RELATED TO A 25N93W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS FILLED WITH UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND THE 25N93W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND NORTHWESTERN
CUBA ALONG 83W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 27N72W...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS.

EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 500 MB TO 800 MB...SPANS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE 27N72W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD NORTHERLY
WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE 48-HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL COVER THE
AREA WITH A TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...
WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 27N72W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE GREATER
ANTILLES NORTHWARD TO 31N/32N BETWEEN 65W AND FLORIDA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REACHES 31N38W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N43W TO 31N50W TO 33N55W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 30N50W BEYOND 32N55W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N21W...TO A SECOND 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 29N34W...TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
27N57W...EVENTUALLY TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN
PART OF THE BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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