[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11.5N-16N
BETWEEN 70W-81W THROUGH FRI EVENING THEN REDUCING TO AN AREA
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA.
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 40W
FROM 7N-14N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 56W FROM 7N-17N
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE A HIGH AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 81W-82W S OF 16N
TO ACROSS PANAMA MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF
78W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOVED OUT OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 12N17W AND CONTINUES TO 10N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 8N37W 4N46W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N
BETWEEN 41W-44W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 26W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
PANAMA CITY COVERING THE N GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO 85W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT IS
CENTERED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 25N95W. THE UPPER LOW IS
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SW GULF S OF 23N BETWEEN 89W-96W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA COVERING THE GULF WITH A
WEAK 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 28N86W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER
THE N GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE N PORTION OF THE W CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW GULF SAT THROUGH
SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE NICARAGUA TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER NEAR ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE
DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N
W OF 83W TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WINDING DOWN OVER CUBA AND
DISSIPATED FROM HISPANIOLA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. A PERSISTENT W ATLC SURFACE
RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE W CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FRI. THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FRI AND THEN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT TO THE W CARIBBEAN BY SUN.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT AS THE EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED. AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR FRI DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL
APPROACH THE ISLAND SAT AFTERNOON INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC WITH A PAIR OF
UPPER LOWS...ONE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W AND A
WEAKER ONE NEAR 26N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 73W-79W AND
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. A BROAD E/W SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE ATLC BASIN WITH A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 27N42W. THIS
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE DENSE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR
SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS S OF 27N E OF 55W. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLC THROUGH SAT BEFORE SHIFTING
SLIGHTLY S SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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