[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251038
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE NW
COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH FRI EVENING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED
BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
W ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED ON THE 25/0600 UTC IN THE E
TROPICAL ATLC FROM 12N32W TO 4N34W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN
A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 20N47W TO 7N52W
MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE A HIGH
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 76W S OF
16N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
W OF 70W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM 20N93W
ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD SURGE OF
DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE E BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 20N E OF 94W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 18N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 13N19W TO 10N22W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO E OF THE NEW TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N32W
THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 6N36W THEN ALONG 5N46W TO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 5N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N E OF 18W TO THE COAST W AFRICA.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN
PENSACOLA AND PANAMA CITY COVERING THE N GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A LARGE
UPPER LOW THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 23N93W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG FLORIDA COAST FROM CEDAR KEY TO
TAMPA THEN INTO THE GULF WATERS TO 25N84W. THE UPPER LOW IS
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W
GULF FROM 22N-27N W OF 92W TO THE COAST OF TEXAS/MEXICO. THIS IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS N
FLORIDA COVERING THE GULF WITH A WEAK 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N89W.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE N GULF THROUGH TONIGHT THEN
SHIFT S INTO THE E/CENTRAL GULF FRI AND THE SE GULF SAT AND SUN.
THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW GULF TODAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE
FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 86W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
UNDER NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LINGERING MOISTURE FROM
THE RECENT PASSING TROPICAL WAVE COUPLED WITH THE DIFFLUENT FLOW
OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 20N
W OF 86W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND AND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A PERSISTENT W ATLC SURFACE
RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI NIGHT DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY SAT
AND SUN THEN STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE AGAIN SUN NIGHT. THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN
THIS EVENING AND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FRI. THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT AND THEN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI TO THE W CARIBBEAN BY SUN.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE TROPICAL
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W AWAY FROM THE ISLAND.
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR TODAY
AND FRI DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. SAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE INCREASING THE SHOWERS FROM E TO
W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC WITH AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 26N71W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DOT THE W ATLC FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A BROAD E/W SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC BASIN WITH A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 27N51W.
THIS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE FIRST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS
THE TROPICS S OF 25N TO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLC THROUGH SAT BEFORE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY S
SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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