[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE FORECAST FOR 18 HOURS...FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W. SEA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 9 FEET TO 15 FEET. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/36W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 7N TO 16N BETWEEN 31W AND 40W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 7N TO
16N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
26N67W...TO THE ACKLINS ISLANDS IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO JAMAICA AND 16N78W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
THIS POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY RAWINSONDE DATA...TPW AND 700 MB
DATA...AND UNIV. OF ALBANY TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE AND LOCALLY STRONG FROM HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO NORTHWARD TO 26N BETWEEN 58W AND 72W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 23/1200 UTC...
ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.70 IN GUADELOUPE...0.64
IN TRINIDAD...AND 0.21 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 18N16W TO 14N18W 9N20W AND 8N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
8N22W TO 6N36W AND 3N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...WITHIN 300 TO 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM THE COASTAL BORDER OF MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN
BELIZE...TO 10N94W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW... THAT IS FLOWING AWAY FROM AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS IN MEXICO...MERGES INTO THE CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW OF THE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...FROM 93W EASTWARD IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W IN
EASTERN MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 29N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FLORIDA...TO 28N87W IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND BEYOND A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS FILLED WITH MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...COURTESY OF THE TROUGH THAT
RUNS FROM THE COASTAL BORDER OF MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA TO BELIZE.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD JAMAICA...AND
THEN THE WIND FLOW CURVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST...ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA.

EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...COVERS THE AREA
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800
MB COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB
TO 800 MB COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 70W EASTWARD...AND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

MORE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
21N71W...TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA.

A TROPICAL WAVE SPANS THE AREA FROM ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE
ACKLINS ISLANDS IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO
JAMAICA. PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE 21N71W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM 70W WESTWARD.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI. FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN LA ROMANA AND IN PUNTA
CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
WILL COVER HISPANIOLA WITH THE CURRENT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO BE THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD...GIVING SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH WIND FLOW
FOR HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 21N71W...JUST TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 31N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BETWEEN 60W
AND 80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
AND LOCALLY STRONG FROM HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO NORTHWARD TO
26N BETWEEN 58W AND 72W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N13W TO
27N22W...TO 24N32W...TO A 23N46W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
TO 18N48W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO
28N24W...TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
27N50W...TO 29N65W...BEYOND 29N81W AT THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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