[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG
THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TUE EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING. THESE
WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 18N31W TO 7N34W
MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE A SURGE
OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 16N53W TO 6N51W
MOVING W-NW 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS TRAILING A LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 51W-
56W AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

COMPLEX TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM PUERTO
RICO NEAR 18N67W ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS AND INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA TO NEAR 9N69W MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT ENCOMPASSES
THE E CARIBBEAN. WAVE IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF LINE GRENADA IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
ALONG 14N67W TO 17N71W INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

TROPICAL WAVE IN W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 87W S OF 17N TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N20W TO 9N24W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N27W 6N32W 5N43W TO SOUTH AMERICA
4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N E
OF 19W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 18W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS AN AXIS
ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO TO ACROSS
LOUISIANA NEAR VERMILION BAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER
A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC. WEDGE BETWEEN THESE UPPER
FEATURES IS A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM THE SE GULF NEAR
25N82W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR FORT MYERS TO NE
FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE. THE UPPER FEATURES ARE ADVECTING
MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE THE FAR W GULF WITHIN 60
NM ALONG THE COAST FROM VERACRUZ TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND
OVER THE SE GULF S OF 24N E OF 86W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
COVERS THE W GULF. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS N FLORIDA OVER THE N GULF. SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER
OVER THE NE AND N/CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THU NIGHT THEN SHIFT S
INTO THE E CENTRAL GULF FRI. THE N PORTION OF THE E CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
N BELIZE COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 82W AND EXTENDS N INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS E CUBA NEAR CABO CRUZ WHILE AN
UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA COVERS MUCH OF THE E
CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 79W. THE UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA
COUPLED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES. THE ACTIVITY IN THE E CARIBBEAN/LESSER ANTILLES IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SEE TROPICAL WAVES ABOVE.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN. A PERSISTENT W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN
STRONG TO GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE END OF WEEK BEHIND THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE. W
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN AND OUT OF
THE ATLC BASIN TODAY. THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN BY WED
NIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN WED
REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY FRI.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT WITH SOME POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER LOW N OF THE ISLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AND COUPLED WITH
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE
ISLAND TODAY THROUGH LATE THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM E CUBA NEAR CABO CRUZ OVER THE
N/CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N68W. THE UPPER LOW
IS N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N69W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN IS INTERACTING WITH THIS WAVE AND GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N TO THE GREATER ANTILLES
BETWEEN 62W-70W. A BROAD E/W SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC
BASIN AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 27N50W  EXTENDING
ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS S OF 25N/26N AND
INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
ATLC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE N PORTION OF THE E
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW ATLC TONIGHT AND
TUE REACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED AND MOVE THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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