[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA
AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE AND A LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING
PULSES OF GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN
THE GULF OF VENEZUELA...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS TO GALE FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED PRIMARILY AT
NIGHT AND IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT STRONG TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND NIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO
THE AREA...BUT INCREASE AGAIN BY MID WEEK. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
WAVE AXIS IS APPROXIMATELY LOCATED AT 17W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WHILE METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DUST AND
DRY AIR ENGULFING THE NORTHERN REGION OF IT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 15W
AND 18W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR
35W MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A
MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT EXCEPT IN THE NORTHERN REGION WHERE
METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST. NO
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG
53W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS MAINLY EMBEDDED
WITHIN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT EXCEPT FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 48W AND 57W WHERE ABUNDANT MOISTURE SUPPORTS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W
FROM 17N TO PANAMA MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS MAINLY
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT IS HINDERING
DEEP CONVECTION N OF 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 12N...INCLUDING COSTA
RICA AND NORTHERN PANAMA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 09N13W AND CONTINUES TO 07N24W TO 07N33W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 08N36W AND CONTINUES TO E OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N52W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN
19W AND 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA
ENHANCING A FEW SHOWERS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF YUCATAN INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EXTENDING WITHIN 60 NM OFF THE
COAST BEING SUPPORTED BY MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND
MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OFF THE
NE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 22N TO 24N. OTHERWISE GENERALLY FAIR
SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE E TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KT OVER THE SE GULF AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N90W TO 16N93W. VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 KT
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE NE BASIN AROUND HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR
27N86W. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA
AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W AND A LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS
SUPPORTING PULSES OF GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL
WAVES SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA AND A RIDGE
COVERING PORTIONS OF THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH SHALLOW
MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OFF
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER
NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...HOWEVER WITH DRY AIR AROUND
IT...THUS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HAZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN...INCLUDING THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
TUESDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVED ACROSS HISPANIOLA LEAVING SCATTERED
CLOUDS OVER SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND S HAITI ADJACENT WATERS.
METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST
AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE ISLAND...WHICH IS SUPPORTING HAZE IN SOME
REGIONS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO DEPICT DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPT
FOR THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE ATLC BEING ANCHORED BY A 1027
MB HIGH NEAR 31N35W. METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SAHARAN
DRY AIR AND DUST COVERING MOST OF THE TROPICS S OF 20N...THUS
LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOR INFORMATION ON TROPICAL WAVES SEE
SECTION ABOVE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THE
NEXT THREE DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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