[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED CURRENTLY IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 72W
AND 77W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL FLUCTUATE WITH TIME DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...SOMETIMES AT
MINIMUM GALE-FORCE...AND AT OTHER TIMES AT SPEEDS THAT ARE LESS
THAN GALE-FORCE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/
FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W FROM 11N SOUTHWARD
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT
CONTINUES IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE TO HIGH SURGE OF
MOISTURE. METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND
DUST IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT. ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W FROM 11N SOUTHWARD.
IT HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE WAVE IS MAINLY
EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE SURGE OF MOISTURE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N
TO 13N BETWEEN 45W AND 51W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W FROM SOUTHWESTERN
JAMAICA TO PANAMA...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE WAVE MAINLY IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS
IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN...ALONG 89W/90W FROM EASTERN HONDURAS TO EL
SALVADOR. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. EARLIER SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS TAKING
PLACE IN SOUTHERN BELIZE AND EASTERN GUATEMALA...HAS WEAKENED
AND DISSIPATED. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND COVERING CENTRAL AMERICA
FROM HONDURAS NORTHWARD.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 9N20W AND 8N30W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
8N30W TO 9N32W AND 9N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 75 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 7N12W 8N22W 8N31W 9N38W 11N42W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS AT
THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN CAMPECHE AND COATZACOALCOS.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...WITHIN 90 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N87W 26N92W
18N94W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO
FROM 20N INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS
GULF COAST. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A 1020
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N84W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W...
INCLUDING THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
20/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.36 IN
MONTERREY MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 18N63W. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM JAMAICA EASTWARD.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST-
TO-WEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA EASTWARD...
RELATED TO THE 22N62W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A
TROPICAL WAVE ALSO IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE
READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...IN RELATION TO THE 18N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 17N NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N BETWEEN 60W
AND 72W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING
IN BARAHONA. RAINSHOWERS AND A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA
ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
PUNTA CANA. FEW TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL STAY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH ENDS UP ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA
AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N30W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N34W AND 24N46W. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO 23N53W...TO AN 18N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...INTO VENEZUELA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N
BETWEEN 60W AND 72W.

A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N76W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE
BAHAMAS NORTHWARD BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 70W AND FLORIDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 34N33W TO 29N40W 27N50W AND 24N65W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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