[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT ALONG
THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA THROUGH
FRI EVENING. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL REOCCUR FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT EVENING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG
40W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
MODERATE TO HIGH SURGE OF MOISTURE S OF 11N. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS FROM 2N TO
10N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 71W FROM
15N TO INLAND VENEZUELA MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT IS HINDERING
DEEP CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG
82W FROM 17N TO OVER NORTHERN PANAMA MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT
ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 170 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 08N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N38W THEN RESUMES W
OF THE WAVE NEAR 05N42W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 04N51W. BESIDES
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 220 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 21W
AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO EXTENDS AN AXIS NE
INTO THE NW GULF NEAR TO OVER LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT IS
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE SE CONUS ACROSS FLORIDA OVER THE E GULF TO 94W
WITH A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N84W. OVER THE SW GULF...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N94W TO 17N93W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AHEAD OF IT. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 KT
IS OVER THE SE AND NW BASIN WHILE 5 KT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
PREVAILS ON THE NE GULF. E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 20N TO
22N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN THE NE GULF WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT ALONG
THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA THROUGH
FRI EVENING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BASIN. FOR DETAILS SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION. THE BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
YUCATAN CHANNEL COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 80W. AN
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
BASIN...LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW. A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION N OF 16N W OF 78W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST COVERING THE E
CARIBBEAN...THUS SUPPORTING HAZE. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

A LOW TO MODERATE MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...CUBA AND NORTHERN ADJACENT WATERS THAT ALONG WITH A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SW TO W OF THE ISLAND SUPPORT CLOUDINESS.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN
DUST...WHICH IS SUPPORTING HAZE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS...FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 20N W OF 64W ANCHORED N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA. E OF THE RIDGE A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN
64W AND 68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WESTERN WATERS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN WITH A
1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N75W AND A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR
26N46W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST COVERING THE TROPICS S OF 23N
EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN...THUS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC WATERS SAT
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AFTERWARDS...SURFACE RIDGING
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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