[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL PULSE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE
OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 23W/24W FROM
7N TO THE SOUTHERN MOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W 5-10 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE SURGE OF MOISTURE. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS NO LONGER
DISCERNIBLE AND WAS DROPPED FROM THE 1800 UTC ANALYSIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN SE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 62W/63W FROM 15N TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 76W/77W
FROM 18N TO THE COAST OF PANAMA MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 13N16W AND CONTINUES TO E OF THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 10N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 9N26W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 6N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 26W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER MEXICO INTO THE FAR NW GULF
JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA COVERING
THE W GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE T.D. BILL ARE N OF 27N W OF 94W. FOR MORE
INFORMATION OF T.D. BILL SEE THE PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCPAT2/WTNT32
KWNH. A BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE GULF TO 23N93W. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA OVER THE E
GULF TO 92W WITH A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 29N85W. A SEABREEZE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER THE W FLORIDA
COAST...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND OVER CUBA. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA AND FLORIDA LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE
SURFACE HIGH IN THE NE GULF WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS N OF HISPANIOLA OVER THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO AN UPPER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 21N85W CONTINUING ACROSS THE YUCATAN INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE SW TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS
A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO THE ABC ISLANDS
COVERING THE SE CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
UNDER NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND CUBA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN
DUST COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE W
CARIBBEAN S OF 20N W OF 80W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE SE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE FRI AND INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN THIS
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE THE ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO
NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...
PULSING TO GALE FORCE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
THIS EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HAITI. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE THE RESULT OF INSTABILITY AND THE PASSING OF THE TROPICAL
WAVES. THIS SCENARIO WILL PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 67W ANCHORED NEAR
32N76W. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND
EXTENDS A NARROW UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS THEN
OVER CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. TWO UPPER LOWS ARE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC...ONE
CENTERED 28N61W AND A SECOND ONE NEAR 23N48W. THE SURFACE ATLC
IS DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN THIS EVENING. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC THROUGH 32N31W ALONG 25N49W TO A
1022 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 26N72W CONTINUING ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN
DUST COVERS THE TROPICS S OF 20N INTO THE CARIBBEAN THUS
LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
NW/SE ACROSS THE ATLC THROUGH FRI THEN WILL ALIGN ALONG 28W/29N
OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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