[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 170241
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022015
1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

Bill has continued to weaken while it moves farther inland over
Texas. The initial intensity is estimated at 35 kt, but surface
observations indicate that these winds are confined to a few
rainbands over water to the southeast of the center. Because most
of the circulation is already inland, additional weakening is
anticipated, and Bill is expected to become a tropical depression
Wednesday morning, and a remnant low on Thursday.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north or 350
degrees at 10 kt, and this is based primarily on NWS Doppler Radar
data. Bill is forecast to move northward for the next day or so
around the western periphery of high pressure centered over the
southeastern United States. After that time, the cyclone or its
remnants will move toward the northeast while embedded within the
mid-latitude westerlies. Most likely the system will become absorbed
by a front by day 4.

The main hazard from Bill is expected to be primarily heavy rainfall
and flooding across portions of eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma
over the next day or two.  Please see products from your local
National Weather Service office for more information on the flood
threat.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 29.5N  97.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  17/1200Z 31.0N  97.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  18/0000Z 33.2N  97.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  18/1200Z 34.8N  96.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  19/0000Z 35.5N  94.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  20/0000Z 37.5N  90.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  21/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
Forecaster Avila
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