[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM BILL IS CENTERED NEAR 28.2N 96.7W AT 16/1800 UTC
OR ABOUT 22 NM SW OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS AND ABOUT 30 NM ENE OF
ROCKPORT TEXAS MOVING NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 92W-97W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N37W TO 12N38W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY MATCHES WELL GEOGRAPHICALLY WITH LONG TERM IR
SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY...CONFIRMING THE WAVES POSITION. A
SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS PRESENT NORTH OF 08N ALONG THIS WAVE AND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N55W TO 14N55W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A POLEWARD EXTENSION OF DEEP LAYERED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 53W-60W ON THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE TROPICAL
EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC NORTH OF 08N. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 53WN AND 58W. CONVECTION
TO THE EAST OF 53W IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N69W TO 16N66W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE JUST BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE OF AN
WESTWARD MOVING SURGE IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM COLOMBIA TO 14N BETWEEN 65W
AND 70W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO 18N88W MOVING
W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SE CONUS. SSMI
TPW INDICATE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS
NORTH OF 15N ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 86W TO 90W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO
08N25W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 06N35W...THEN
RESUMES EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 05N40W TO THE COAST OF S
AMERICA NEAR 05N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 175
NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM BILL HAS MOVED INLAND OVER TX
THIS AFTERNOON WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COVERS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF WHILE
MODERATE MOISTURE COVERS THE EASTERN BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 18N95W TO 22N97W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF UNDER
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. ASIDE FROM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL STORM...SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE BASIN. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE NW AS BILL
MOVES FARTHER INLAND. HOWEVER...REMNANT DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN INTO CENTRAL AMERICA...AND ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP MOISTURE ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THAT PORTION OF
THE BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM 19N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AFTER
PASSAGE OF THE CENTRAL ATLC WAVE MID WEEK...A SAHARAN AIR LAYER
MAY INHIBIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
A CLEAR START TO THE DAY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING DAYTIME HEATING THAT WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE
OF A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT
WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AND GREATER CHANCES FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN ATLC TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS AND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THIS RIDGING IS ANCHORED
BY A 1030 MB HIGH EAST OF THE AZORES AND A 1021 HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 28N74W. MUCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC S OF 32N IS
FREE OF CONVECTION. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
SAGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC MAY ENTER OUR AREA OF
DISCUSSION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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