[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BELIZE
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE CHANCES OF THIS SYSTEM
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS
MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W FROM 15N TO 05N
...MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. TPW SSMI IMAGERY SHOWS A
MOIST ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THIS WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 33W AND 39W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W FROM 13N TO 04N.
SAHARAN DUST NOTED ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE...WHICH
IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG THAT PORTION OF THE
WAVE. DEEP MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI TPW S OF 10N. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD TO OVER COLOMBIA...MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 20 KT.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE EMBEDDED
IN RELATIVELY DRY AIR. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS EVIDENT IN THE
WAVE ENVIRONMENT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS PRESENT WITH THIS WAVE.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W S OF 13N
AND ACROSS PANAMA TO OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...MOVING WESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 KT. A DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS CONFINED MAINLY S OF
10N ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
11N W OF 81W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF AFRICA
NEAR 11N16W TO 07N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
08N34W. THE ITCZ THEN RESUMES WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
08N37W TO 05N44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ARE OVER THE GULF...ONE
LOCATED NEAR 30N86W AND THE OTHER NEAR 23N90W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN UPPER LOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 88W AND 96W. THE
SOUTHERN UPPER LOW IS INTERACTING WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN AND NORTHERN
BELIZE...SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 25N BETWEEN 83W AND 88W. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW AROUND 15 KT DOMINATES THE GULF AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
ATLC SURFACE RIDGING. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF THROUGH
SUNDAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

TWO WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N89W IS INTERACTING WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN AND NORTHERN
BELIZE...SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 81W TO 88W. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT
COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND A SMALL AREA OF NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR THE SPECIAL
FEATURE. CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY...HOWEVER WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FOCUS INTO THE GULF AS THE
LOW DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE ISLAND
TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N59W AND IS INTERACTING WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N59W TO 27N68W WHICH SUPPORTS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A
STATIONARY 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N54W. FARTHER
EAST...A 1020 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N41W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 24N43W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITH THIS LOW AND TROUGH. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH
REGARDS TO CONVECTION OVER THE ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO
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