[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 25W/26W FROM 4N-
15N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY
IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A VERY BROAD MODERATE SURGE
OF DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO
10N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING ALONG
36W/37W FROM 4N TO 14W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE SAME BROAD MODERATE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
THE WAVE ABOVE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N
TO 09N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG
57W/58W S OF 16N TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W-NW AT 15
TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY
IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE CONFINED MAINLY S OF 10N. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 71W/72W S
OF 15N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS
THE WAVE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A MODERATE SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W TO 10N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
9N24W THEN RESUMES NEAR 8N28W TO 7N35W THEN RESUMES NEAR 6N39W
TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 28N85W WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE
COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM 19N93W TO
26N90W SUPPORTS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W. ENHANCED CLOUD
COVER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE EASTERN GULF UNDER
THE UPPER LOW. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC AND
ACROSS THE GULF SUPPORTS EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF TODAY. EXPECT ENHANCED
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF TO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN. DYNAMIC LIFT AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 77W TO
88W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. AN INCREASE IN DEEP
MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE
SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN
64W AND 69W. 15 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF
COLOMBIA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MODELS ARE FORECASTING
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...BECOMING
MORE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THIS PATTERN OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N50W PROVIDES GENERALLY
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC. A WEAKNESS
IN THE HIGH IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N58W
TO 27N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N41W TO
26N38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN
35W TO 40W. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION LIKELY NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGHS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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