[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091038
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 35W
FROM 5N-15N MOVING W AT 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-
10N BETWEEN 36W-38W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 55W S OF 12N
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N MOVING W-NW NEAR 15 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS
THE WAVE AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-
10N BETWEEN 50W-57W BEING ENHANCED BY A CUTOFF UPPER LOW JUST
NW OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA EXTENDING ALONG 83W S OF 16N TO ACROSS COSTA RICA
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA
OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE SW CARIBBEAN. WAVE IS
BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE ENHANCING THE SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 80W-84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 12N16W ALONG 7N20W TO 4N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 4N36W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N W OF 14W TO
THE MONSOON TROUGH. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 29W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE W COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO
COVERING THE W GULF WHILE A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IN THE W ATLC
EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF NEAR
24N85W TO THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR MERIDA. A DIURNAL SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N90W
TO 19N91W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N E OF 95W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N TO INLAND OVER THE N
GULF COAST BETWEEN PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
OF LOUISIANA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE W COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 25N-27N E OF 84W.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO 26N90W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE N GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE S/CENTRAL AND SW GULF AS A SURFACE TROUGH
EARLY WED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WESTWARD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING AN AXIS
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NE ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE S/CENTRAL
ATLC. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-
21N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 13N80W TO COLOMBIA NEAR
11N75W AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE W COAST OF COLOMBIA TO THE
BORDER OF PANAMA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 65W. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE N PORTION OF THE SW
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE AND WILL MOVE W-NW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT. THE W TROPICAL ATLC WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE
E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BEING INDUCED BY DIFFLUNCE ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE W ATLC OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR
29N78W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS JUST NE OF BERMUDA SUPPORTING A
1014 MB LOW OVER BERMUDA WITH A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING W TO 33N70W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N66W TO 27N62W. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SW EXTENDING FROM 27N65W ACROSS THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS TO 21N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SW SURFACE TROUGH WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90
NM W OF THE SW SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE S/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 23N58W
THEN N TO BEYOND 32N52W. AN UPPER LOW IN THE NE ATLC EXTENDS AN
UPPER TROUGH THROUGH 32N30W ALONG 26N35W TO 18N48W SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N27W ALONG
28N33W TO 29N36W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM SE
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE W TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR BARBADOS AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO
OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO THE SE OF THIS
UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 55W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
WITH A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 30N43W. THE SW ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
WILL EXTEND ALONG ROUGHLY 23N TUE THEN WILL GRADUALLY LIFT N TO
27N BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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