[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N20W TO 14N18W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH THAT REMAINS
LARGELY NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM
04N-09N BETWEEN 17W-22W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N30W TO 10N29W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS LARGELY LOW-AMPLITUDE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE
AND AREAS OF THE EASTERN ATLC TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT...NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N43W TO 09N46W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE WAS NUDGED A BIT FARTHER WEST DUE TO SLIGHTLY
FASTER MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BETWEEN 40W-50W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AT
THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N65W TO 17N64W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A CENTRAL ATLC MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 21N47W. THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS WESTWARD ALONG 20N TO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA.
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PROVIDING
FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS RESULTING IN A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
07N20W TO 06N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 06N23W TO 04N30W TO 02N43W TO 02N50W. ASIDE FROM
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN
AND 05W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 04N-09N
BETWEEN 10W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD
OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N82W SW TO 22N89W. TO THE EAST OF THIS
AXIS...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS E OF A LINE FROM THE TAMPA
BAY AREA NEAR 27N83W TO THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N87W. THIS CONVECTION IS FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 24N85W INTO A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N87W.
FURTHERMORE...TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR PROMOTING FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICYCLONIC GENTLE TO
OCCASIONAL MODERATE BREEZE CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOCUSED AROUND A
1017 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE NW GULF NEAR 27N92W. THE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY AND
GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ASIDE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W...MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 11N83W NE TO 22N71W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS INCREASES FARTHER WEST WITHIN A ZONE OF
MAXIMIZED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE AMPLE DYNAMICS IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...SOME LOCALLY STRONG...ARE OCCURRING NW OF A LINE
FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W TO THE NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS BORDER NEAR 15N83W. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS N OF 19N. WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO PERSIST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FRESH TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED S OF 18N E OF 82W
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL WITH THE APPROACH OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE STRONGER CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS CUBA AT
THIS TIME...ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS
WELL AS THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS AS THE TROUGHING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS NEAR 35N76W SUPPORTING A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
34N73W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S-SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
30N74W THEN SW TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR BISCAYNE
BAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 20N-28N W OF 65W...AND
WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS N OF 28N.
CONVECTION OCCURRING S OF 22N W OF 71W IS NOTED AT THE BASE OF
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ANOTHER TROUGH
AXIS PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC N OF 28N W OF 74W
IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AS A STATIONARY FRONT
BECOMES DIFFUSE OFF THE COAST OF THE SE CONUS. FARTHER EAST...A
CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N54W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH RESULTING AT THE SURFACE ANALYZED FROM 23N62W TO 29N54W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING MOSTLY SE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 18N-28N BETWEEN 50W-60W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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