[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W/18W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NEARBY ITCZ-RELATED ISOLATED MODERATE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W FROM 9N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NEARBY ITCZ-RELATED ISOLATED MODERATE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NEARBY ITCZ-RELATED ISOLATED MODERATE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NEARBY ITCZ-RELATED ISOLATED MODERATE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 8N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 8N15W TO 5N22W 4N32W 1N40W 1N48W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG
51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LOUISIANA
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD.
MULTILAYERED MOISTURE MOVES FROM MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD...COVERING THE AREA THAT IS FROM 28N SOUTHWARD
FROM 90W EASTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES FROM A 37N79W
VIRGINA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO GEORGIA...AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...FROM 27N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD.

A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KBQX...KXIH...
KVBS...AND KVQT.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN TEXAS IN CORPUS
CHRISTI...AT THE PEARLAND REGIONAL AIRPORT...AND IN BEAUMONT...
AND IN FLORIDA IN THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG...ABOUT 100 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA...FROM
16N TO 18N BETWEEN 77W AND 82W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N
NORTHWARD FROM 78W WESTWARD. THE OVERALL COVERAGE BY
MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS IS FROM 17N
NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BETWEEN 63W AND 90W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN
COLOMBIA FROM 4N TO VENEZUELA BETWEEN VENEZUELA AND 70W...AND IN
COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

MIDDLE LEVEL EAST WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 23N57W
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FEW MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING OBSERVED IN
SANTIAGO. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CLOUD CEILING IS PRESENT IN PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA TO HISPANIOLA. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED
RIDGE...FIRST WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...AND THEN THE
RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND BE ALONG THE SAME LATITUDE AS
HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE IN HISPANIOLA...AND IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE
FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST. THE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL WEAKEN...AND IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A
RIDGE. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N57W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 28N BETWEEN 47W AND 64W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N19W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 22N27W AND 17N34W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 52W. A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 32N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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