[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 010548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG IN THE ITCZ FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL/GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 7N19W AND
6N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N23W TO 6N40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
SIERRA LEONE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 12W AND 15W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STRONG FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG IN CLUSTERS FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN
11W AND 12W...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N BETWEEN 15W
AND 16W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SOUTHERN
MISSOURI/NORTHERN ARKANSAS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO EAST
TEXAS...TO THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL WATERS...AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N
TO 22N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 22N TO 26N
BETWEEN 92W AND 95W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO
THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...COVERS TEXAS AND ITS COASTAL WATERS AND THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF LOUISIANA WESTWARD AT LEAST TO 100W.

RAINSHOWERS WERE INLAND IN FLORIDA...WITH A NORTH-TO-SOUTH
ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH...FROM 26N81W TO 31N83W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KXIH...KATP...
AND KIPN.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDER ARE BEING OBSERVED IN LOUISIANA...IN LAKE CHARLES...
LIGHT RAIN IS IN LAFAYETTE...AND A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN
BOOTHVILLE. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN
FLORIDA IN THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA TO JAMAICA...TO 12N79W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...FROM 12N SOUTHWARD. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE LEVEL AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE 62W AND 78W...IN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...BEING TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
IN HONDURAS...PARTS OF EL SALVADOR... AND NICARAGUA FROM 13N TO
16N BETWEEN 83W AND 88W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO JAMAICA...TO 12N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 24N70W...ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...TO
20N73W AT THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF HAITI.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR HAITI...A LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING WAS BEING REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE AS LATE
AS 31/2000 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING WERE BEING OBSERVED IN
BARAHONA AS LATE AS 01/0000 UTC IN BARAHONA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING IS IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
LA ROMANA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN
PUNTA CANA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER WERE BEING OBSERVED IN PUNTA
CANA AS LATE AS 01/0300 UTC. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. RAINSHOWERS...
SOMETIMES WITH THUNDER...WERE BEING REPORTED FROM 31/1825 UTC
UNTIL 01/0000 UTC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS OF
THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A
RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-
WEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST
ORIENTED EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A BROAD ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE TO THE
EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO
23N73W...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 30N72W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 71W/72W FROM 28N TO
32N...PASSING THROUGH THE 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 24N70W...ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...TO 20N73W AT THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF HAITI.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 19N69W
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO
24N58W...AND THEN WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
24N58W BEYOND 32N60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO ELSEWHERE
FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N37W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N42W AND 15N43W. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 25W AND
40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 30W AND
45W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 12N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 64W. A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 37N43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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