[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING FROM
11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-78W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE WARNING CRITERIA BY 29/1800 UTC AND RE-
INTENSIFY TO GALE FORCE BY 30/0600 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N22W TO 20N28W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 21W-33W AND
A LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL GYRE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH
AXIS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN 19W-26W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N38W TO 18N42W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING
BETWEEN 37W-45W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N54W TO 18N58W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 53W-62W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS
TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N81W TO 19N80W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 76W-86W
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
17N16W TO 12N22W TO 09N35W TO 10N45W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N45W TO 09N51W TO 06N57W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF THIS
MORNING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES MOST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS NOTED E OF 90W
PRIMARILY AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE ATTRIBUTED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. AN AREA OF
LOWER PRESSURE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA FOCUSED ON A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NE OF CAPE CANAVERAL
FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 25N-29N
BETWEEN 81W-86W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N86W IS PROVIDING THE BASIN WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC BREEZE CONDITIONS. THE HIGH IS FORECAST
TO DRIFT SLOWLY W-NW THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...WEAK FRONTAL
TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS MORNING
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT FOCUSED ON TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS...ONE CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N83W AND THE OTHER CENTERED NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR 20N66W. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE BASIN
REMAINING NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 18N BETWEEN 67W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE MORNING HOURS. GIVEN DRY AND STABLE
AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY TO THE EAST...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 39N63W TO
30N73W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
33N76W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO A 1013
MB LOW NEAR 30N79W THEN SURFACE TROUGHING TO THE FLORIDA COAST
NEAR 28N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N
OF 25N BETWEEN 73W-80W...AND N OF 28N BETWEEN 65W-73W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N63W
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR
24N80W. FARTHER EAST...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED
S-SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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